Tesla Motors chief executive and co-founder Elon Musk wants the electric car maker to be selling 500,000 units annually by 2020. However, Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas says that a figure around the 300,000 mark is much more conceivable.

Jonas believes that the key reason why Musk may not reach his production goals for Tesla is that the upcoming, entry-level Tesla Model III could cost significantly more than previously expected. As a matter of fact, Jonas suggests that the Model III could set customers back almost $60,000 compared to the $35,000 which Tesla is aiming for.

Jonas also believes that the falling price of oil could result in significantly fewer examples of the Model III being sold and said, “While nobody buying a Model S today (for nearly US$105,000) is doing so to save on their monthly expenses, the longer-term story is far more dependent on the volume success of the Model III.”

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